It goes mostly without saying that Gov. Jim Gibbons is, as Chancellor Jim Rogers once said, “not that bright.” And if you ever doubt that, Gibbons will do his best to remind you.

Even so, however, there’s a very real possibility that Gibbons might emerge from the 2009 Legislature looking better than he’s looked in a long time, maybe ever.

First, consider that Gibbons proposed a bare-bones $6.1 billion budget, with deep cuts in employee salaries and education, especially higher education. It contains revenue from a tax increase — which Gibbons once pledged to oppose and veto — but he didn’t sign the bill that increased those taxes, so he can claim purity.

Second, consider that he’s drawn as much criticism from the right as from the left on his budget. (Conservative activist Chuck Muth has called for Gibbons to quit, and the right-wing Nevada Policy Research Institute has released its own budget, $1 billion less than the governor’s — as was trumpeted today by their publishing partners at the Review-Journal.)

Third, consider that tomorrow the Economic Forum meets to release its numbers, which some predict will be the equivalent of swine flu plus Ebola injected directly into the state’s fiscal bloodstream. Every dollar the forum says Nevada is short below previous projections is another dollar in taxes the Legislature will have to raise, assuming it doesn’t want to live with Gibbons’s budget.

Fourth, consider Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley has already said “the b-word” is not sustainable, meaning billion-dollar tax hikes. That means the Legislature would only be able to raise $999 million in taxes, theoretically. But its also widely believed Democrats don’t want to raise more in taxes than the $833 million raised under former Gov. Kenny Guinn in 2003 which remains “the largest tax increase in state history.” If that’s so, the gap that must be closed with cuts grows wider.

Fifth, consider that a clock is ticking, as lawmakers need to pass any budget containing taxes no later than May 26 (some say even earlier, perhaps May 22). The Legislature needs to give itself enough time to muster the two-thirds majority necessary to override a gubernatorial veto. If lawmakers fail to pass a balanced budget in the regular session, Gibbons has said he’ll try to prevent a tax increase from being passed in a special session. He probably can’t, but the constitutional battle that would play out in the state Supreme Court doesn’t help anybody.

So where does that leave us? If the Economic Forum numbers are bad, and Democrats have limited their tax options to $833 million or less, they may end up producing a budget that looks more like Gibbons’s than one with any kind of Democratic stamp. Or, even if the forum’s numbers aren’t as bad as we feared, if the Legislature can’t pass a tax increase and a veto override in the time allotted, they may have to go with Gibbons’s recommended budget, just to avoid a special session.

Either way, the governor wins. (And by “wins,” we mean screws up the state royally, since his budget makes deep cuts in vital programs.) He’ll be able to say the Legislature did essentially what he wanted them to do, just like he did after last year’s budget-cutting special sessions.

The only way Democrats can win is by moving quickly after Friday’s news to build consensus around a workable tax package, augmented with federal stimulus money, and pass it by month’s end, even as the governor tours the state, slamming them and the package at every turn with easily digested rhetoric. (He began today with a news conference that took swipes at Democrats and Republicans for even considering taxes.) But they’ll need time to cement the final package, and time is something in short supply.

We hate to be pessimistic, but we see dark days ahead. And we see something else, too, something that looks at lot like … well, this:

Due to circumstances beyond his control (i.e., looming state budget meltdown), City Councilman Ricki Barlow has rescheduled Saturday’s Town Hall meeting at the West Las Vegas Library. The event, which will introduce citizens to training and job opportunities in energy efficiency, has been bumped to 5 p.m. It was originally scheduled for 1:30 p.m. The change will allow state Sen. Steven Horsford to attend the event.

With the last batch of films, things remain interesting and the 48 Hour Film Project comes to a close. These are a few select choices, and so it’s up to the judges and audience members to decide the fates of the film teams. This is Group D:

The Gateway Effect: Whether it’s a drama or comedy, The Gateway Effect’s hilarity comes from the idea of a stoner landing on top because of his drug use. It’s a classic ploy that tends to work for the strung-out hero, as he succeeds at life and career goals despite his habits. I thought the piece was funny, although slow at times, and the acting could use some improvement. Overall, it was a fairly enjoyable piece that could use some smoothness around the rough edges. – Muck Fichigan

Gwkk pm rstyj: I cannot explain what I saw on the screen other than a series of disturbing images. While I’ve used the word disturbing before, this piece takes the cake, as it’s able to reach deep into those dark spots of my being and pull out every uncomfortable feeling that exists. If there is a plot, then it’s hidden deep within the subtext, and you barely notice the required elements of the film until multiple viewings. Either way, it’s frightening and not a good thing to watch right before you go to bed. – Braire (more…)

In Fear and Lounging’s News and Notes this week, we dropped a line about A Way of Life Production’s first all-ages DJ party, “Evolve,” to be held May 1 at the Arts Factory. But AWOL promoter Chad Craig has just announced its postponement, probably until the next First Friday (June 5):

“SORRY everyone but the EVOLVE event has been postponed until next first friday … a minor miscommunication between the venue and I caused a set of circumstances that make it smarter to postpone the event … sorry for the tease … but if we are gonna do this we are gonna do it right … keep tuned to www.awayoflifeproductions.com”

There’s a fascinating article in today’s New York Times on the art, craft and science of containing pandemics. What works: washing hands, working from home, and hoping a hot summer puts the brakes on the spread of swine flu. What doesn’t work — and here, perhaps, a bit of good news for Las Vegas: Restricting travel.

“Containment is no longer a feasible option,” Dr. Keiji Fukuda, deputy director general of the World Health Organization, announced Monday night in Geneva after a meeting of the agency’s emergency committee on the spreading swine flu virus. “The world should focus on mitigation. We recommend not closing borders or restricting travel.”

Why not? Well, with this brave new global economy we’ve got going on, it turns out that quite a bit of vital medicine components are manufactured overseas. Like the main ingredient of that Tamiflu you’re currently drinking out of a beercan hat is made largely in China.

Unfortunately, according to the piece, many countries are in a knee-jerk mode of banning travel. They’re hereby advised to chill out, hand out some flu masks and Purell and let their people go! Preferably to Vegas.

Financial collapse

Overleveraged casinos

Death knell: Bang? No. Oink.

The economy has taken down several victims on its way to rock bottom: bankers, homeowners, cancer patients, college students. But there’s at least one victim we won’t be missing. Urban sprawl and its Siamese twin, the growth industry, may not be coming back, even if the economy makes a full recovery.

Last week’s issue of the High Country News, a magazine about the West, featured this article about Surprise, Ariz., a classic exurban community that built its Ponzi-esque existence out of the very fact of its growth. Sound familiar? Sure, Las Vegas has the tourism industry, but it’s unlikely this community would have swelled to 2 million without a little performance enhancement from residential construction.

That population drop that we suffered last year indicates that the community might be experiencing a correction. In the short term, that means a lot less growth. And with apologies to the construction unions, hopefully it’ll mean less Doozerish activity in the Las Vegas Valley that leaves this community with so many unnattractive developments.

But it would be foolish to think we’re going to learn our lesson this time around. It’s going to take more than an economic hiccup to convince some people that growth can be a bad thing. It’s going to take a disaster, or the end of drinking water as we know it, to keep people from trying their luck in Vegas.

On April 27, “3400” — the Monday house promo in Jet’s back room — held its last party after two years of relieving discerning clubbers from Vegas main-room banality. The decision to not sign a new contract was mutual between the resident DJs and club management. “‘3400’ was a great party that ran for two years and we wanted to end it on a high note,” says Josh Donaldson, Jet’s house party director of marketing. Residents Faarsheed and Chris Garcia will now focus on studio work and gigs. “You might see us create a new brand in new cities, and if an opportunity presents itself to throw a great event, we won’t be opposed to it,” says Faarsheed. … First Friday and AWOL will try out an all-ages (until curfew; 21+ to drink) DJ party called “Evolve” starting at 9 p.m. May 1 at the Arts Factory. Visit www.awayoflifeproductions.com for more info. …  The Doodler (aka Jeff Madlambayan from Pan de Sal) celebrates the release of his new CD, Mystery Tuning, May 1 at the Bunkhouse. … If you’re near Santa Maria, Calif., on May 2, The Apocalyptics are playing the Tiger Rose Tattoo Festival. … Go see some guest DJs. They include: Doc Martin (April 30 at Ghostbar’s “House Society”), Ron D. Core and DJ Dot-Com (May 2 at Fort Cheyenne Events Center’s “100% Vinyl”); Total Science, APX1, CRS? and others (May 2, Penthouse Club), Anthony Attalla (May 2 at Rain’s “Perfecto”; opening set), Oscar G (May 3 at Tao Beach), Phil Faversham and Airloom (May 3 at Moon’s “Hedkandi”) and Kaskade (May 6 at Body English’s “Godskitchen”). News and Notes is compiled by Mike Prevatt. Send tips to mprevatt@lvcitylife.com.

With the second day of the 48 Hour Film Project screenings, Group C’s showings were definitely on par with the previous day’s efforts. If anything, the real problems stem from the repetitive use of sets and how exactly the required line “Just remember, you didn’t hear it from me” was implemented. For some groups, it wasn’t a problem, for others it seemed as if they randomly threw it in their works to avoid disqualification. Overall the films were enjoyable to watch, and hear are some notables from the day:

Yard Sale: A group B holdover that couldn’t be shown originally due to the film project’s DVD player not working, Yard Sale is a buddy film that works on the strength of its actors’ performances. While the plot is pretty vanilla, the performances shine through as each of the actors, from young children to adults, sells his role and convinces you to like this group of friends. The best part of the whole endeavor is how the production crew is able to capture a natural feel for the yard sale, as noted in the beginning, and make it seem as if this is a real event going on, rather than a film. – Team Sit n Spin

Wacked: The Ruse Films Wacked is a great example at how to end your film. With a surprise ending as its genre of choice, the Ruse had a lot going against it, but is able to play the suspense perfectly all the way through the end. It is definitely a film to be watched because not only did they end their film properly, but they did it with a surprise twist, which is something a few of the other films could learn from in terms of creating a story.- The Ruse Films (more…)

Jay Bybee, the ex-Bush administration official who signed off on several memos that authorized so-called enhanced interrogration techniques to be used against detainees in the war on terror, has finally broken his silence. Bybee, now a judge on the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, sent a statement to the New York Times defending his memos. (See preivous blogs here, here and here for more details.)

In the statement, Bybee defended his work for the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel as “a good-faith analysis of the law.” From the Times:

“The central question for lawyers was a narrow one; locate, under the statutory definition, the thin line between harsh treatment of a high-ranking Al Qaeda terrorist that is not torture and harsh treatment that is. I believed at the time, and continue to believe today, that the conclusions were legally correct.”

Other administration lawyers agreed with those conclusions, Judge Bybee said.

“The legal question was and is difficult,” he said. “And the stakes for the country were significant no matter what our opinion. In that context, we gave our best, honest advice, based on our good-faith analysis of the law.”

In one of his memos, Bybee provides a step-by-step guide to interrogation that includes slamming a detainee up against a false wall, placing him inside a box with an insect and waterboarding him. The memo concludes that these techniques do not violate U.S. anti-torture laws. In another memo, Bybee writes that to constitute torture, the pain experienced by the detainee must approach organ failure or death. And in another, he concludes that a specific intent to torture is necessary to be convicted under anti-torture law, and absent that intent, brutal conduct is legally justified.

How could this be so? The Times story provides a clue, courtesy of UNLV Boyd School of Law Professor Christopher L. Blakesley, who worked with Bybee, a founder of the law school. (Bybee remains on the Boyd faculty as a senior fellow in constitutional law, although he has not taught there in a year and there are currently no plans for him to do so again.)

From the piece:

Prof. Christopher L. Blakesley, a colleague on the law school faculty at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said that after the first memorandum was released, he was unable to restrain himself from expressing disagreement at a 2004 dinner at a restaurant that included their wives.

“I asked him how he could sign such an awful thing,” Professor Blakesley recalled in an interview.

He said the judge replied that he could not talk about the matter. The dinner proceeded awkwardly, Professor Blakesley said, and they have not spoken since.

Professor Blakesley said that while he liked Judge Bybee, “he has some basic flaws including being very naïve about leaders.”

“He has too much respect for authority and will avoid a confrontation no matter what,” the professor continued.

Sadly, had Bybee sought a confrontation, things might have been very different. If Bybee’s memo concluded — as many scholars say they should — that the conduct was torture, the Bush administration would have faced a choice: Don’t do it, and preserve U.S. law, international agreements and basic morality, or do it anyway in violation of legal advice, and expose themselves to prosecution.

But Bybee’s “respect” for the authority of the Bush administration caused him to keep silent, and thus prove Edmund Burke correct: “Public life is a situation of power and energy; he trespasses against his duty who sleeps upon his watch, as well as he that goes over to the enemy.”

UPDATE: Meanwhile, a Spanish judge best known for investigating the late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet has launched a probe of the U.S. torture regime. This is separate from another probe targeting Bybee and five other American officials for their role in blessing torture.

No, not us. We’d never pass the standard FBI background check. Besides, according to the Facebook quiz, we should be secretary of the treasury, not health and human services.

No, we’re talking about Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who married into the noble Sebelius family. (We are related, but we’re not entirely sure how. Any genealogists out there?)

Anyway, despite Republican opposition (Sebelius, like many in the Sebelius family, is pro-choice) she survived to win confirmation as the final member of President Barack Obama’s cabinet, on a vote of 65-31 today. Ayes included our own U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, who released a very nice statement in Sebelius’s favor today. (Thanks, senator!)

On the nay side were U.S. Sens. David Vitter (of whoremonger fame), John McCain (of losing a presidential election fame), and our own John Ensign (of in-fame). Being in the minority is a bitch, isn’t it, guys? You can’t even stop a well-qualified nominee to a federal department, can you, much less start unnecessary, unjustified wars or torture detainees!

Anyway, congrats to Gov. Sebelius. We’re sure she’ll do a great job, in a post that’s all the more important in a down economy.

U.S. Sen. John Ensign — who oversaw the loss of eight Republican Senate seats to the Democrats last year — today saw longtime fellow Republican Arlen Specter announce he was leaving the GOP, and providing the Democrats with the last vote they needed to overcome filibusters.

That’s gotta hurt.

In a statement released by Ensign’s office, Nevada’s junior senator worried about the future.

“To say that I am disappointed is putting it mildly. I can only hope that his decision is not the death knell for bipartisanship. It is imperative that we have checks and balances to ensure that Democrats don’t take our country radically left.”

Yes, it is imperative that we don’t let the winners of the last election, the party that is seemingly a much better fit for moderates such as Specter, the party that ostensibly represents the majority of Americans, to have their say.

Surely, if the roles were reversed, and a longtime conservative Democrat (think Joe Lieberman) decided to abandon the Democrats and join the Republicans, we know Ensign would be cautioning: “I can only hope this is not the death knell for bipartisanship. It is imperative that we have checks and balances to ensure we Republicans don’t take our country radically right.”

You can see him saying that, right? Oh, yeah. Totally. We’re sure that a GOP majority in the government would in no way whatsoever be seen as a license to jam a radical-right agenda up the country’s ass.

Memo to the GOP: You lost. You’re losing members. You’re crowding out your moderates with a silly devotion to your radical fringes. History is passing you by. And if you don’t figure out a way to make a positive contribution to the country for regular Americans and not the corptocracy, you’re going to be in the wilderness for a long, long time.

Plus, if we’re any kind of observer of politics, we’re pretty sure only like 12 people currently serving even know what a radical left agenda even is, much less how to take our country there. So don’t let any more of that fabulous hair go gray, Johnny Casino. If history is a guide, you’ve got nothing to worry about.

Received an announcement from Ward 5 Councilman Ricki Barlow today that weatherization will be on the agenda of Saturday’s Town Hall meeting at the West Las Vegas Library. Apparently there is a proposed Weatherization Training Center, and apparently it will use funding from the stimulus bill to provide education, apprenticeship and jobs in energy efficiency and auditing.

If you want to learn more about employment opportunities in the fields of duct sealing and window installation, join Barlow, state Sen. Steven Horsford and Assemblyman Morse Arberry, Jr. at 1:30 p.m. in the library theater.

And we’re not even kidding. This is a license plate currently under consideration in the Florida state Senate:

Now, we’re all for free speech and the freedom to express one’s religion, so of course we don’t oppose the issuance of this plate, so long as the state gives equal consideration to license plates commemorating other religions, or no religion at all. (Atheist plate? Blank!) And we’re always glad to have yet another means to identify a really shitty driver — Christian paraphernalia is a dead giveaway.

But we’re wondering about the whole taste factor. Is this really what Christ had in mind when he told his disciples to go and baptize all nations, teaching them to observe what he’d commanded? He didn’t say, “And lo, I am with you always, even unto the end of the age — just check you car’s rear bumper!” Seriously, we’ve got to think that even Jesus would be all, “Dudes, tacky. Seriously.”

You want to show other drivers that you follow the risen Christ? How about letting a brother in when the lanes merge? How about forgiving a mistaken lane change when you were sitting in the other guy’s blind spot? How about not flipping the bird once in awhile?

But no. Instead, from the land of Terry Schiavo, stolen elections and hurricanes, we get the Jesus plate. Nice. What would Jesus do? Probably move.

Finally, the folks at Digg have cracked the case on what causes the latest outbreak: